Construction of IRAK4 inhibitor activity prediction model based on machine learning

Interleukin-1 receptor-associated kinase 4 (IRAK4) is a crucial serine/threonine protein kinase that belongs to the IRAK family and plays a pivotal role in Toll-like receptor (TLR) and Interleukin-1 receptor (IL-1R) signaling pathways. Due to IRAK4's significant role in immunity, inflammation, and malignancies, it has become an intriguing target for discovering and developing potent small-molecule inhibitors. Consequently, there is a pressing need for rapid and accurate prediction of IRAK4 inhibitor activity. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset encompassing activity data for 1628 IRAK4 inhibitors, we constructed a prediction model using the LightGBM algorithm and molecular fingerprints. This model achieved an R² of 0.829, an MAE of 0.317, and an RMSE of 0.460 in independent testing. To further validate the model's generalization ability, we tested it on 90 IRAK4 inhibitors collected in 2023. Subsequently, we applied the model to predict the activity of 13,268 compounds with docking scores less than - 9.503 kcal/mol. These compounds were initially screened from a pool of 1.6 million molecules in the chemdiv database through high-throughput molecular docking. Among these, 259 compounds with predicted pIC₅₀ values greater than or equal to 8.00 were identified. We then performed ADMET predictions on these selected compounds. Finally, through a rigorous screening process, we identified 34 compounds that adhere to the four complementary drug-likeness rules, making them promising candidates for further investigation. Additionally, molecular dynamics simulations confirmed the stable binding of the screened compounds to the IRAK4 protein. Overall, this work presents a machine learning model for accurate prediction of IRAK4 inhibitor activity and offers new insights for subsequent structure-guided design of novel IRAK4 inhibitors.