Unsupervised Clustering Analysis of Regimen and HLA Characteristics in Pediatric Umbilical Cord Blood Transplantation

HLA matching is a critical factor in allogeneic unrelated hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) because of its impact on post-transplantation survival and quality of life. Umbilical cord blood transplantation (UCBT) offers unique advantages, but determining the optimal approach to graft selection and immunosuppression remains challenging. Unsupervised clustering, a machine learning technique, has potential for analyzing transplantation outcomes, but its application in investigating leukemia outcomes has been limited. This study aimed to identify optimal combinations of HLA/ killer immunoglobulin receptor (KIR) donor-patient pairing, conditioning, and immunosuppressive regimens in pediatric patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) or acute myeloblastic leukemia (AML) undergoing UCBT. Outcome data for single, unmanipulated UCBT in pediatric AML (n = 708) and ALL (n = 1034) patients from the Eurocord/EBMT registry were analyzed using unsupervised clustering. Resulting clusters were used to inform post hoc competing risks and Kaplan-Meier analyses. In AML, single HLA-C mismatches with other loci fully matched (7/8) were associated with poorer relapse-free survival (RFS) (P = .039), but a second mismatch at any other locus counteracted this effect. In ALL, total body irradiation (TBI) effectively prevented relapse mortality (P = .007). KIR/HLA-C match status affected RFS in AML (P = .039) but not in ALL (P = .8). Administration of antithymocyte globulin (ATG) substantially increased relapse, with no relapses occurring in the 85 patients who did not receive ATG. Our unsupervised clustering analyses generate several key statistical and mechanistic hypotheses regarding the relationships between HLA matching, conditioning regimens, immunosuppressive therapies, and transplantation outcomes in pediatric AML and ALL patients. HLA-C and KIR combinations significantly impact RFS in pediatric AML but not in ALL. ATG use in fully matched pediatric patients is associated with late-stage relapse. TBI regimens appear to be beneficial in ALL, with efficacy largely independent of histocompatibility variables. These findings reflect the distinct genetic and biological profiles of AML and ALL.