Short-term fluctuating and long-term divergent selection on sympatric Monkeyflowers: insights from decade-spanning...

Sympatric species are often locally adapted to distinct microhabitats. However, temporal variation may cause local maladaptation and species boundary breakdown, especially during extreme climatic events leading to episodic selection. Repeated reciprocal transplants can reveal the interplay between short and long-term patterns of natural selection. To examine evolutionary trajectories of sympatric Monkeyflowers adapted to different niches, Mimulus guttatus and M. laciniatus, we performed three replicated transplants and combined them with previous experiments to leverage a dataset of five transplants spanning 10 years. We performed phenotypic selection analyses on parents and hybrids in parental habitats in Yosemite NP, CA during years of drastically differing snowpack. If there is ecological isolation, then we predicted divergent phenotypic selection between habitats in line with species' differences and local adaptation. We found interannual fluctuations in phenotypic selection, often in unpredicted directions. However, a combined-year analysis detected longer-term divergent selection on flowering time, a key temporally isolating and adaptative trait, suggesting that selection may reinforce species boundaries despite short-term fluctuations. Finally, we found temporal variation in local adaptation with M. laciniatus locally adapted in low snowpack years, while an extremely high snowpack year contributed to average local maladaptation of M. guttatus.