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This study introduces the Potential Indirect Vulnerability Index (PIVI) to quantify economic risks from global trade and investment interdependencies. The PIVI model identifies how countries can be indirectly vulnerable through intermediary nations, offering insights for economic policy.

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • International Trade
  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

Background:

  • Economic globalization increases interdependence between nations through trade and investment.
  • Existing research has not systematically quantified indirect economic vulnerabilities arising from these interdependencies.
  • Understanding these vulnerabilities is crucial for national economic security and policy-making.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and introduce a novel metric, the Potential Indirect Vulnerability Index (PIVI).
  • To quantify economic vulnerabilities stemming from interdependencies in trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) networks.
  • To demonstrate the PIVI's utility in assessing national economic risks.

Main Methods:

  • Developed the Potential Indirect Vulnerability Index (PIVI) model.
  • The PIVI model considers a target country, an investing country, and intermediary countries acting as conduits.
  • Quantified indirect vulnerabilities by multiplying the target country's commodity dependency on intermediaries by the intermediaries' FDI dependency on the investing country.

Main Results:

  • Demonstrated PIVI's application using 2019 US trade and FDI data concerning China.
  • Identified several Asian countries and specific commodities (agricultural products, raw materials) as potential conduits for indirect economic influence.
  • Highlighted Vietnam as a significant risk due to its role as a US import source and a recipient of substantial Chinese FDI; identified critical minerals like cobalt, tungsten, and copper as vulnerability-inducing.

Conclusions:

  • The PIVI effectively quantifies indirect economic vulnerabilities arising from complex global trade and FDI networks.
  • Findings suggest policy implications for diversifying trade partners and strategic investment to mitigate identified risks.
  • PIVI is a flexible and adaptable metric for nuanced economic vulnerability assessments.