Historical Pathogen-Driven Selection May Contribute to Contemporary Ethnic Difference in Bladder Cancer...

The rationale for ethnic differences in bladder cancer (BCa) susceptibility is an important open question. In this study, we raised the hypothesis that the APOBEC3-rs1014971 variant associated with BCa risk and APOBEC-mutagenesis probably contribute to ethnic differences.

We calculated the ethnicity-stratified 5-year age-adjusted incidence rates of BCa using the US SEER database. We performed somatic mutational-signature analyses and compared the APOBEC-related mutational contribution across BCa tumors in patients of different ethnicities. We analyzed the allele frequency distribution of APOBEC3-related rs1014971 in contemporary populations of different ethnicities and in ancient human genomes. We also analyzed the natural selection profiles and ages of the investigated SNPs.

We validated the ethnic difference in BCa risk using US SEER data, revealing Caucasians to be at >2-fold greater risk than Asians / Pacific islanders. In contemporary populations, we observed a coherent ethnic distribution in terms not only of the allele frequency of APOBEC3-related rs1014971, but also the mutational contribution of APOBEC-mediated mutagenesis in BCa tumors. Population genetics and ancient genome analyses further suggested that the diverse ethnic distribution of rs1014971 could be rooted in human evolution.

It is possible that APOBEC3-related rs1014971 is involved in the different BCa incidence across ethnic groups, and this difference is potentially derived from human evolution. Our findings suggested an evolutionary link between contemporary population-level variations in malignancy susceptibility and pathogen-driven selection in the past, not unlike previously reported cases of certain autoimmune and metabolic disorders.