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Updated: Jun 21, 2025

Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
[Comprehensive analysis of population mortality by cause: regional features]
A E Krasnov1, E A Bakirova2, E N Mingazova3,4,5
1Biomedical University of Innovation and Continuing Education of the State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation - A. I. Burnazyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center of the Federal Medical Biological Agency of Russia, 123098, Moscow, Russia, aekmu@mail.ru.
Chronic non-communicable diseases (CNCDs) are leading causes of death in Tatarstan. Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the primary cause, with COVID-19 significantly impacting mortality and reducing average lifespans.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Cardiology
Background:
- Chronic non-communicable diseases (CNCDs) represent the leading causes of mortality in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Tatarstan.
- In 2022, the mortality structure in Tatarstan was dominated by circulatory system diseases (46%), neoplasms (15%), and external causes (7.3%).
- The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated population mortality, particularly from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and the infection itself, which caused nearly 20% of deaths in 2021.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the impact of COVID-19 on mortality patterns in the Republic of Tatarstan.
- To investigate the specific trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in relation to the pandemic.
- To compare mortality risks from various disease categories between men and women in the region.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of mortality data from the Republic of Tatarstan for 2021 and 2022.
- Comparison of mortality rates across different disease categories (circulatory, neoplasms, external causes, respiratory, endocrine).
- Assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on average age at death for cardiovascular causes.
Main Results:
- COVID-19 significantly increased overall mortality, with a substantial rise in deaths attributed to cardiovascular diseases (CVD).
- The pandemic lowered the average age of death from CVD by 4.5 years in men and 4 years in women.
- Mortality risks differ by sex: women have higher risks from circulatory and endocrine diseases, while men face higher risks from respiratory diseases, cancer, and external causes.
Conclusions:
- Circulatory system diseases remain the leading cause of death in Tatarstan, with COVID-19 exacerbating this trend.
- The pandemic has had a profound impact on mortality, particularly affecting cardiovascular health and reducing life expectancy.
- Understanding sex-specific mortality patterns is crucial for targeted public health interventions in the region.
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