Association between deep neural network-derived electrocardiographic-age and incident stroke

Stroke continues to be a leading cause of death and disability worldwide despite improvements in prevention and treatment. Traditional stroke risk calculators are biased and imprecise. Novel stroke predictors need to be identified. Recently, deep neural networks (DNNs) have been used to determine age from ECGs, otherwise known as the electrocardiographic-age (ECG-age), which predicts clinical outcomes. However, the relationship between ECG-age and stroke has not been well studied. We hypothesized that ECG-age is associated with incident stroke.

In this study, UK Biobank participants with available ECGs (from 2014 or later). ECG-age was estimated using a deep neural network (DNN) applied to raw ECG waveforms. We calculated the Δage (ECG-age minus chronological age) and classified individuals as having normal, accelerated, or decelerated aging if Δage was within, higher, or lower than the mean absolute error of the model, respectively. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for age, sex, and clinical factors were used to assess the association between Δage and incident stroke.

The study population included 67,757 UK Biobank participants (mean age 65 ± 8 years; 48.3% male). Every 10-year increase in Δage was associated with a 22% increase in incident stroke [HR, 1.22 (95% CI, 1.00-1.49)] in the multivariable-adjusted model. Accelerated aging was associated with a 42% increase in incident stroke [HR, 1.42 (95% CI, 1.12-1.80)] compared to normal aging. In addition, Δage was associated with prevalent stroke [OR, 1.28 (95% CI, 1.11-1.49)].

DNN-estimated ECG-age was associated with incident and prevalent stroke in the UK Biobank. Further investigation is required to determine if ECG-age can be used as a reliable biomarker of stroke risk.