The Turnout Gap in Surveys: Explanations and Solutions.

Area of Science:

• Political Science
• Survey Methodology
• Public Opinion Research

Background:

• Postelection surveys consistently overestimate voter turnout, creating a significant turnout gap.
• Understanding this discrepancy is crucial for accurate analysis of electoral participation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To comprehensively document the turnout gap in three major US surveys.
• To evaluate explanations for survey overestimation of voter turnout.
• To suggest improvements for measuring turnout in surveys.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of the turnout gap in the General Social Survey (GSS), Current Population Survey (CPS), and American National Election Studies (ANES).
• Evaluation of factors influencing accuracy, including interview mode (face-to-face vs. telephone), recency of election, question wording, and report type (self vs. proxy).

Main Results:

• Face-to-face interviews and questions about the most recent election showed greater accuracy.
• Specific question wordings reduced social desirability bias and improved accuracy.
• Proxy reports exhibited lower reported turnout rates than self-reports, potentially indicating higher accuracy.

Conclusions:

• Survey mode, question design, and reporting method significantly impact turnout measurement accuracy.
• Non-voters' lower survey participation may contribute to the turnout gap.
• Refined survey methodologies are needed to improve the accurate measurement of voter turnout.