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Cardiologic scoring system as predictors of mortality in geriatric COVID-19 patients
Yudi Her Oktaviono1, Makhyan Jibril Al Farabi2, Aurelia Regina3
1Department of Nursing Management, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya,.
Insights
A new cardiac scoring system can predict mortality in elderly patients with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). This tool uses electrocardiograph findings to identify high-risk individuals during hospitalization.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Geriatrics
- Infectious Diseases
- Public Health
Background:
- Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) poses a significant mortality risk, particularly in geriatric populations.
- Cardiac complications are frequently observed in severe COVID-19 cases, impacting prognosis.
- Effective tools are needed to identify high-risk elderly COVID-19 patients for timely intervention.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a cardiologic scoring system for predicting mortality in geriatric patients diagnosed with COVID-19.
- To identify specific electrocardiographic (ECG) findings associated with increased mortality risk in this demographic.
- To provide a practical tool for clinicians to assess prognosis in elderly COVID-19 patients.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective cohort study of geriatric COVID-19 patients admitted between March 2020 and April 2021.
- Analysis of clinical data, comorbidities, ECG, and chest X-ray findings.
- Development of a scoring system based on significant predictors identified through statistical analysis (SPSS 26).
Main Results:
- Data from 322 geriatric COVID-19 patients (mean age 66 years) were analyzed; 17.1% died during hospitalization.
- Five significant cardiac variables identified: cardiomegaly, sinus tachycardia, ST-segment abnormalities, pathological T-wave inversions, and axis deviation.
- The developed scoring system demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.86, with a cut-off ≤4 offering 89% sensitivity and 69% specificity for mortality prediction.
Conclusions:
- A novel cardiologic scoring system effectively predicts mortality in elderly COVID-19 patients.
- The system leverages readily available cardiac findings during hospital admission.
- This tool has the potential to improve risk stratification and patient management for geriatric COVID-19 cases.
Objective:
To develop a cardiologic scoring system to predict mortality among geriatric coronavirus disease-2019 patients.
Methods:
The retrospective cohort study was conducted after approval from the ethics review committee of the Dr Soetomo General Academic Hospital, Surabaya, Indonesia, and comprised data from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, of geriatric patients of either gender confirmed for coronavirus disease-2019 from several referral hospitals in East Java, Indonesia. Data on comorbidities, electrocardiograph, and chest X-ray findings was examined to develop a comprehensive scoring system. Data was analysed using SPSS 26.
Results:
Of the 3,893 cases reviewed, data of 322(8.27%) patients was analysed; 191(59.3%) males and 131(40.7%) females. The overall mean age was 66±4.1 years (range: 60-75 years). Of them, 267(82.9%) subjects were alive upon hospital discharge, while 55(17.1%) died during hospitalisation. Of the 24 variables analysed, 5(21%) were found to be significant: cardiomegaly, sinus tachycardia, ST-segment abnormalities, pathological T-wave inversions, and axis deviation (p<0.05). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed an area under the curve 0.86, cut-off point ≤4 with sensitivity 89% and specificity 69%.
Conclusions:
The scoring system was found to have the potential to predict mortality in geriatric coronavirus disease-2019 patients based on cardiac findings during hospital admission.
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