Update and projections for New Zealand's ophthalmology workforce

Area of Science:

• Ophthalmology workforce analysis
• Health economics
• Population health

Background:

• The ophthalmologist workforce in New Zealand is critical for eye care delivery.
• Understanding current supply and future demand is essential for strategic planning and resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To update and project the growth of ophthalmologists in New Zealand.
• To inform decision-makers on workforce planning and resource allocation for ophthalmology services.

Main Methods:

• Data on ophthalmologist supply and demographics were sourced from national health organizations and professional colleges.
• Population statistics were obtained from Stats NZ.
• A simulation model was developed to project workforce growth from 2024 to 2050.

Main Results:

• As of March 2023, New Zealand had 175 practicing ophthalmologists, equating to 34.0 per million population.
• The ratio for those aged 65 years and over was 201.4 per million.
• An additional 20 ophthalmologists are required by 2050 to maintain the current population ratio.

Conclusions:

• The ophthalmologist-to-population ratio for individuals aged 65+ is projected to decline by 1.5% annually.
• To meet future demand and the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists' (RANZCO) target of 40 per million, annual training intake must increase from 6.6 to 11 new trainees.
• Improved workforce distribution is also necessary to address projected shortages.