Related Experiment Video
Updated: May 5, 2026
Modeling Encephalopathy of Prematurity Using Prenatal Hypoxia-ischemia with Intra-amniotic Lipopolysaccharide in Rats
Published on: November 20, 2015
Modelling climate impacts on paediatric sepsis incidence and severity in Bangladesh
Gazi Ms Mamun1, Katelyn Moretti2, Farzana Afroze3
1Infectious Diseases Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Insights
Climate change impacts paediatric sepsis in Bangladesh. Rising temperatures and increased precipitation are linked to higher sepsis incidence and mortality in children, necessitating adaptive healthcare strategies.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health
- Paediatric Infectious Diseases
- Climate Change Epidemiology
Background:
- Sepsis is a major global cause of child mortality, especially in low- and middle-income countries.
- The influence of climate change on paediatric sepsis burden and outcomes is not well understood.
- Bangladesh faces significant climate change impacts, making it a critical study area.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between climate variables (temperature, precipitation) and paediatric sepsis.
- To analyze associations with sepsis incidence and mortality in Bangladesh.
- To inform public health strategies in climate-vulnerable regions.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of patient-level data from the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh.
- Utilized environmental data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
- Employed random forest models to assess climate variable associations (2009-2022).
Main Results:
- Identified a nonlinear association between temperature and paediatric sepsis incidence and mortality.
- Optimal temperature for lowest sepsis incidence was 26.6°C; higher temperatures increased incidence.
- Increased precipitation showed a trend towards higher sepsis incidence; optimal temperature for mortality was 28°C.
Conclusions:
- Environmental factors like temperature and precipitation significantly influence paediatric sepsis in Bangladesh.
- Climate change adaptation in healthcare planning is crucial, especially in resource-limited settings.
- Further global research is needed to understand climate-paediatric sepsis links worldwide.
Background:
Sepsis is a leading cause of paediatric mortality worldwide, disproportionately affecting children in low- and middle-income countries. The impacts of climate change on the burden and outcomes of sepsis in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in paediatric populations, remain poorly understood. We aimed to assess the associations between climate variables (temperature and precipitation) and paediatric sepsis incidence and mortality in Bangladesh, one of the countries most affected by climate change.
Methods:
We conducted retrospective analyses of patient-level data from the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, and environmental data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Using random forests, we assessed associations between sepsis incidence and sepsis mortality with temperature and precipitation between 2009-22.
Results:
A nonlinear relationship between temperature and sepsis incidence and mortality was identified. The lowest incidence occurred at an optimum temperature of 26.6°C with a gradual increase below and a sharp rise above this temperature. Higher precipitation levels showed a general trend of increased sepsis incidence. A similar distribution for sepsis mortality was identified with an optimum temperature of 28°C.
Conclusions:
Findings suggest that environmental temperature and precipitation play a role in paediatric sepsis incidence and sepsis mortality in Bangladesh. As children are particularly vulnerable to climate impacts, it is important to consider climate change in health care planning and resource allocation, especially in resource-limited settings, to allow for surge capacity planning during warmer and wetter seasons. Further prospective research from more globally representative data sets will provide more robust evidence on the nature of the relationships between climate variables and paediatric sepsis worldwide.
