The Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Clustering of Measles - China, 2005-2022

In recent years, the incidence of measles in China has consistently remained below 1 per 100,000 population, yet the disease has not been eliminated. This study aims to comprehensively analyze the epidemiological characteristics of measles from 2005 to 2022, identify high-risk populations and areas, and propose targeted interventions.

We utilized data from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System for our comprehensive analysis. Spatial autocorrelation was employed to examine the spatial clustering of measles, while spatiotemporal scanning analysis was used to detect spatiotemporal clustering to describe measles epidemiology during the study period.

Between 2005 and 2022, 732,218 measles cases were reported in China. Overall, the incidence of measles exhibited a downward trend, particularly during the periods of 2008-2011 and 2015-2022. In 2022, the incidence rate reached its historical low at 0.039 per 100,000 population. Measles predominantly affects young children. Since 2017, global spatial clustering has diminished, although hotspot areas persist in the western provinces. Spatial-temporal scanning identified a high-incidence cluster from 2005 to 2008, comprising 15 provinces in the western, central, and northern regions of China. Conversely, from 2016 to 2022, a low-incidence cluster was detected in the southern and central provinces.

China has made significant progress in measles prevention and control. The recent low incidence and absence of substantial spatiotemporal clustering indicate that China is nearing measles elimination. However, there is a continuing need to enhance prevention and control efforts among very young children and in historic incidence hotspots in western provinces. Additionally, improving the diagnosis of vaccine-associated rash illnesses is essential.