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Decomposing the Drivers of Population Aging: A Research Note
Tabitha Scott1, Vladimir Canudas-Romo1
1School of Demography, Research School of Social Sciences, College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
Demography
|July 19, 2024
Summary
Population aging is driven by changes in births and mortality. Declining birth rates were the primary factor in population aging across analyzed countries, with migration generally slowing the process.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Population Studies
- Gerontology
Background:
- Population aging is a significant global demographic trend.
- Understanding the drivers of aging is crucial for policy and planning.
- Previous research debated the relative impact of births versus mortality on aging.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the contributions of births, mortality, and migration to population aging.
- To develop a formula for analyzing changes in the old-age dependency ratio.
- To compare the impact of demographic drivers across different populations.
Main Methods:
- Variable-r decomposition technique.
- Analysis of cohort data.
- Calculation of the old-age dependency ratio changes.
Main Results:
- Population aging was observed in Australia, the United States, and European countries.
- Both changes in birth rates and mortality rates contributed to aging.
- Declines in birth rates were identified as the predominant factor driving aging.
Conclusions:
- Population aging is a complex phenomenon influenced by multiple demographic factors.
- Birth rate changes have a more significant impact on aging than mortality changes.
- Migration generally acts to reduce, rather than accelerate, population aging.
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