Development of a generalized pseudo-probabilistic approach for characterizing ecological conditions in estuaries...

Under the best circumstances, achieving or sustaining optimum ecological conditions in estuaries is challenging. Persistent information gaps in estuarine data make it difficult to differentiate natural variability from potential regime shifts. Long-term monitoring is critical for tracking ecological change over time. In the United States (US), many resource management programs are working at maximum capacity to address existing state and federal water quality mandates (e.g., pollutant load limits, climate impact mitigation, and fisheries management) and have little room to expand routine sampling efforts to conduct periodic ecological baseline assessments, especially at state and local scales. Alternative design, monitoring, and assessment approaches are needed to help offset the burden of addressing additional data needs to increase understanding about estuarine system resilience when existing monitoring data are sparse or spatially limited. Research presented here offers a pseudo-probabilistic approach that allows for the use of found or secondary data, such as data on hand and other acquired data, to generate statistically robust characterizations of ecological conditions in estuaries. Our approach uses a generalized pseudo-probabilistic framework to synthesize data from different contributors to inform probabilistic-like baseline assessments. The methodology relies on simple geospatial techniques and existing tools (R package functions) developed for the US Environmental Protection Agency to support ecological monitoring and assessment programs like the National Coastal Condition Assessment. Using secondary estuarine water quality data collected in the Northwest Florida (US) estuaries, demonstrations suggest that the pseudo-probabilistic approach produces estuarine condition assessment results with reasonable statistical confidence, improved spatial representativeness, and value-added information. While the pseudo-probabilistic framework is not a substitute for fully evolved monitoring, it offers a scalable alternative to bridge the gap between limitations in resource management capability and optimal monitoring strategies to track ecological baselines in estuaries over time.