Performance of risk prediction models for diabetic foot ulcer: a meta-analysis

The number of prediction models for diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) risk is increasing, but their methodological quality and clinical applicability are uncertain. We conducted a systematic review to assess their performance.

We searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Embase databases up to 10 February 2024 and extracted relevant information from selected prediction models. The Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) checklist was used to assess bias risk and applicability. All statistical analyses were conducted in Stata 14.0.

Initially, 13,562 studies were retrieved, leading to the inclusion of five development and five validation models from eight studies. DFU incidence ranged from 6% to 16.8%, with age and hemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) commonly used as predictive factors. All included studies had a high risk of bias, mainly due to disparities in population characteristics and methodology. In the meta-analysis, we observed area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.78 (95% CI [0.69-0.89]) for development models and 0.84 (95% CI [0.79-0.90]) for validation models.

DFU risk prediction models show good overall accuracy, but there is a risk of bias. Adherence to the PROBAST checklist is crucial for improving their clinical applicability.