Highly Uncertain Methane Leakage from Oil and Gas Wells in Canada Despite Measurement and Reporting

Leakage of fluids from oil and gas wells is a source of the key greenhouse gas methane, and presents environmental risks, including groundwater contamination. A loss of well integrity can result in fluid leakage into the annular space between subsequent well casings (which is often vented to the atmosphere) or into the surrounding subsurface. In Canada, industry reporting on well integrity is often incomplete, leading government inventories to disagree on emission magnitudes. In this study, we model wellbore methane emissions using industry data in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada, finding that differing model assumptions to handle unclear/missing data have a strong influence on estimated emissions. Considering estimates derived from industry reporting and from independent measurement, wellbore emissions in the two provinces range anywhere from 23 to 176 kt of methane, representing 1.7-11.4% of their upstream sector methane emissions. Further, finding over 130 examples of measured leaks seemingly missing from industry reporting, we conclude that wellbore emissions, groundwater contamination, and broader environmental risks are underestimated. We provide recommendations to improve well integrity tracking through data quality assurance measures and increased testing. Finally, we find that ongoing optical gas imaging camera surveys could be an effective tool to augment wellbore testing requirements to minimize industry burden.