The long-lasting effect of armed conflicts deaths on the living: Quantifying family bereavement

Armed conflicts escalate combatant and civilian mortality and produce considerable levels of family bereavement. Yet, we know little about the prevalence of bereavement in conflict-affected populations. The violent loss of kin affects individuals across several dimensions, including trauma, mental health, socioeconomic status, and caregiving, especially during childhood and old age. Here, we propose a method to quantify population-level loss of parents and offspring in conflict-affected populations. Our analyses demonstrate that bereavement levels consistently surpass fatality rates in 16 conflict-affected settings. Using demographic projections, we show that these populations will continue to experience considerable levels of bereavement in the coming decades, independent of the future development of the respective conflicts. This quantification underscores bereavement as a profound yet understudied consequence of conflict with potentially far-reaching implications lingering long after the conflict's end.