Impacts of future climate change on rice yield based on crop model simulation-A meta-analysis

Rice is one of the world's major food crops. Changes in major climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, solar radiation and carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration have an important impact on rice growth and yield. However, many of the current studies that predict the impact of future climate change on rice yield are affected by uncertainties such as climate models, climate scenarios, model parameters and structure, and showing great differences. This study was based on the assessment results of the impact of climate change on rice in the future of 111 published literature, and comprehensively analyzed the impact and uncertainty of climate change on rice yield. This study utilized local polynomial (Loess) regression analysis to investigate the impact of changes in mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation on relative rice yield variations within a complete dataset. A linear mixed-effects model was used to quantitatively analyze the relationships between the restricted datasets. The qualitative analysis based on the entire dataset revealed that rice yields decreased with increasing average temperature. The precipitation changed between 0 and 25 %, it was conducive to the stable production of rice, and when the precipitation changed >25 %, it would cause rice yield reduction. The change of solar radiation was less than -1.15 %, the rice yield increases with the increase of solar radiation, and when the change of solar radiation exceeds -1.15 %, the rice yield decreases. Elevated CO₂ concentrations and management practices could mitigate the negative effects of climate change. The results of a quantitative analysis utilizing the mixed effects model revealed that average temperature, precipitation, CO₂ concentration, and adaptation methods all had a substantial impact on rice production, and elevated CO₂ concentrations and management practices could exert positive influences on rice production. For every 1 °C and 1 % increase in average temperature and precipitation, rice yield decreased by 3.85 % and 0.56 %, respectively. For every 100 ppm increase in CO₂ concentration, rice yield increased by 7.1 %. The variation of rice yield under different climate models, study sites and climate scenarios had significant variability. Elevated CO₂ concentrations and management practices could compensate for the negative effects of climate change, benefiting rice production. This study comprehensively collected and analyzed a wide range of literature and research, which provides an in-depth understanding of the impacts of climate change on rice production and informs future research and policy development.