The weather determined how 'hot' the tick paralysis season was in eastern Australia: 2018-2024

The eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, is a tick of much veterinary importance in Australia. Each year, thousands of dogs and cats present to veterinary clinics and hospitals with signs of tick paralysis. In a previous paper, we constructed two models to explain prevalence and temporal distributions of tick paralysis cases presenting to emergency veterinary hospitals in South East Queensland (2009-2020) and the Northern Beaches of Sydney (1999-2017). The first model accounted for the intensity of the clinical burden of tick paralysis based on the prevalence of cases of tick paralysis in the tick paralysis season whereas the second model accounted for the start of the tick paralysis season. In the present paper, we test our models further, with much additional data from 2021 to 2023 (South East Queensland) and from 2018 to 2023 (Northern Beaches of Sydney). During the defined tick paralysis season in these locations, 10.3 % (3207 of 31,217) of veterinary-consultations were for tick paralysis. On average, predictions for the prevalence of cases of tick paralysis were 1.3 % (0.013) away from the actual prevalence whereas predictions for the start of the tick paralysis season were 1.7 weeks away from the actual start of the season. The prediction of the prevalence of tick paralysis cases was most accurate for Brisbane and least accurate for the Northern Beaches of Sydney whereas, curiously, the prediction for the start of the tick paralysis season was most accurate for the Northern Beaches of Sydney and least accurate for Brisbane. We re-fitted the models with the new data. We predict that about 10 % (Sunshine Coast), 5 % (Brisbane), 7 % (Gold Coast) and 12 % (Northern Beaches of Sydney) of veterinary-consultations in the tick paralysis season of 2024 will be cases of tick paralysis, resulting in a tick paralysis clinical burden intensity of similar magnitude to previous years. Such predictions allow for timely public education campaigns around the importance of prevention and appropriate resource planning for veterinary clinics.