The Alfalfa-inpatient-CAT assessment model: a thrombotic risk assessment model for inpatient cancer patients

To construct a venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk assessment model specifically for inpatients with cancer.

Patients were included according to the inclusion criteria. Univariate and multivariate analyses of all variables were included to develop a VTE risk assessment model applicable to the derivation cohort. Hosmer-Lemeshow test and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to test the fit degree and identification validity of the model. The patient data from separate validation cohorts verified the external population.

A total of 944 cancer patients were included in this study. Alfalfa-inpatient-CAT model, a risk assessment model for VTE in hospitalized cancer patients, was established, which mainly includes hypertension, surgical history (nearly one month), history of VTE, peripherally inserted central venous catheters (PICC), chemotherapy, PT < 12.85 s, D-dimer ≥ 1.805 μg/mL, hemoglobin ≤ 114.5 g/L, CRP ≥ 7.575 mg/L. Hosmer-Lemeshow test results showed P = 0.353 > 0.05, (χ² = 8.872, Df = 8). The area under ROC curve was 0.906 [95%CI (0.881-0.930), P < 0.001]. The authenticity evaluation in the model database showed that the risk of thrombosis in the high-risk group (score ≥ 3) was 72.63%, significantly higher than that in the low-risk group (score 0-2) (27.37%) [χ² = 144.00, Df = 1, P < 0.001].

This study developed a new VTE risk assessment model - Alfalfa-inpatient-CAT model - for hospitalized cancer patients at high risk of thrombosis. This model has a good fitting degree and discriminant validity. It is expected to provide some reference for the clinical treatment of inpatients with cancer through continuous optimization.