Universal Background Checks, Permit Requirements, and Firearm Homicide Rates

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Criminology
• Health Policy

Background:

• A significant loophole in US gun policy allows private gun sales without background checks.
• Some states have implemented universal background checks (UBCs) or permit-to-purchase laws to address this.
• Previous research has not consistently differentiated the impact of UBCs versus permit-to-purchase laws.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the independent associations of point-of-sale background check laws and gun permit laws with firearm homicide rates.
• To analyze data from 1976 through 2022 using consistent methods and model specifications.

Main Methods:

• Cross-sectional study utilizing a difference-in-differences, fixed-effects regression model.
• Analysis of firearm homicide rates in 48 US states from 1976 to 2022.
• Examined the implementation of universal background checks (without permits) and permit-to-purchase laws.

Main Results:

• Universal background checks alone were not significantly associated with changes in overall or firearm homicide rates.
• Permit-to-purchase laws were associated with significant reductions in both overall homicide rates (–15.4%) and firearm homicide rates (–18.3%).
• 12 states adopted UBCs without permits; 7 states implemented permit-to-purchase laws during the study period.

Conclusions:

• Universal background checks alone do not appear to reduce firearm homicide rates.
• Permit-to-purchase requirements, especially when combined with universal background checks, are associated with substantial reductions in firearm homicides.
• Policy recommendations should consider permit-to-purchase systems as a key strategy for reducing firearm violence.