Predicting mine water inflow volumes using a decomposition-optimization algorithm-machine learning approach

Disasters caused by mine water inflows significantly threaten the safety of coal mining operations. Deep mining complicates the acquisition of hydrogeological parameters, the mechanics of water inrush, and the prediction of sudden changes in mine water inflow. Traditional models and singular machine learning approaches often fail to accurately forecast abrupt shifts in mine water inflows. This study introduces a novel coupled decomposition-optimization-deep learning model that integrates Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), Northern Goshawk Optimization (NGO), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. We evaluate three types of mine water inflow forecasting methods: a singular time series prediction model, a decomposition-prediction coupled model, and a decomposition-optimization-prediction coupled model, assessing their ability to capture sudden changes in data trends and their prediction accuracy. Results show that the singular prediction model is optimal with a sliding input step of 3 and a maximum of 400 epochs. Compared to the CEEMDAN-LSTM model, the CEEMDAN-NGO-LSTM model demonstrates superior performance in predicting local extreme shifts in mine water inflow volumes. Specifically, the CEEMDAN-NGO-LSTM model achieves scores of 96.578 in MAE, 1.471% in MAPE, 122.143 in RMSE, and 0.958 in NSE, representing average performance improvements of 44.950% and 19.400% over the LSTM model and CEEMDAN-LSTM model, respectively. Additionally, this model provides the most accurate predictions of mine water inflow volumes over the next five days. Therefore, the decomposition-optimization-prediction coupled model presents a novel technical solution for the safety monitoring of smart mines, offering significant theoretical and practical value for ensuring safe mining operations.