Predictors of emergency abdominal surgery for patients aged 90 years or older: A retrospective study

With the aging of the population, more and more patients ≥90 years old are undergoing surgery. We retrospectively examined factors affecting morbidity and in-hospital mortality among patients ≥90 years old who underwent emergency abdominal operations.

Forty-six cases of emergency abdominal surgery for patients ≥90 years old who underwent surgery at our hospital between 2011 and 2022 were included in this study. Factors affecting morbidity and in-hospital mortality were analyzed statistically. Physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM)-predicted morbidity and Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM)-predicted mortality were calculated.

Postoperative complications occurred in 30 patients (65.2 %) and 5 patients (10.8 %) died in the hospital. Factors affecting morbidity included American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status score, operative time and blood loss, and operative severity score. Multivariate analysis identified male sex, operative severity score, and length of hospital stay as factors affecting morbidity. Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status and physiological score were identified as factors influencing mortality in hospital, and only physiological score was identified in the multivariate analysis. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for POSSUM-predicted morbidity was 0.796 and area under the ROC curve for P-POSSUM-predicted mortality was 0.805, both of which were moderately accurate.

Risk of emergency abdominal surgery in patients ≥90 years old may be predictable to some extent, and we are able to provide convincing explanations to patients and families based on these data.