Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 18, 2025
06:10
Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
918
Projected rapid response of stratospheric temperature to stringent climate mitigation.
Grasiele Romanzini-Bezerra1, Amanda C Maycock2
1School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
Nature Communications
|August 3, 2024
Summary
Stratospheric cooling trends can provide early evidence of climate mitigation effectiveness. Rapid emission reductions show detectable stratospheric changes within five years, offering a clear signal of climate action.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Atmospheric Science
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Meeting the 2015 Paris Agreement requires deep, rapid greenhouse gas emission reductions.
- Assessing the impact of climate mitigation efforts on the climate system is crucial for policymakers and the public.
- Global surface temperature variability can obscure early signs of climate mitigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate near-term global temperature trends at the surface and in the stratosphere.
- To determine if stratospheric temperature trends can serve as an early indicator of climate mitigation effectiveness.
- To compare temperature trends under different future emission scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Utilized large ensemble climate models to project temperature trends.
- Analyzed projected trends for both surface and stratospheric temperatures.
- Compared scenarios representing rapid emission cuts (SSP1-1.9) with current climate commitments (SSP2-4.5).
Main Results:
- Modelled middle and upper stratospheric cooling trends show a detectable weakening within 5 years under rapid, deep emission cuts (SSP1-1.9).
- This detectable weakening is observed in comparison to a scenario representing current climate commitments (SSP2-4.5).
- Surface temperature trends exhibit significant internal variability, making attribution to mitigation challenging in the near term.
Conclusions:
- Stratospheric temperature trends offer a higher signal-to-noise ratio and can provide an early indication of climate mitigation effects.
- Stratospheric cooling trends could serve as a robust early indicator for policymakers and the public that climate mitigation is effective.
- This finding highlights the potential of monitoring stratospheric changes to assess the impact of decarbonisation efforts.
Related Concept Videos
01:50Global Climate Change
24.3K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.3K
02:45Responses to Heat and Cold Stress
13.4K
Every organism has an optimum temperature range within which healthy growth and physiological functioning can occur. At the ends of this range, there will be a minimum and maximum temperature that interrupt biological processes.
13.4K
01:16What is Climate?
18.4K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.4K
02:55Temperature Dependence on Reaction Rate
81.4K
The Collision Theory
Atoms, molecules, or ions must collide before they can react with each other. Atoms must be close together to form chemical bonds. This premise is the basis for a theory that explains many observations regarding chemical kinetics, including factors affecting reaction rates.
The collision theory is based on the postulates that (i) the reaction rate is proportional to the rate of reactant collisions, (ii) the reacting species collide in an orientation allowing contact between...
Atoms, molecules, or ions must collide before they can react with each other. Atoms must be close together to form chemical bonds. This premise is the basis for a theory that explains many observations regarding chemical kinetics, including factors affecting reaction rates.
The collision theory is based on the postulates that (i) the reaction rate is proportional to the rate of reactant collisions, (ii) the reacting species collide in an orientation allowing contact between...
81.4K
01:17Radiation: Applications
1.1K
The average temperature of Earth is the subject of much current discussion. Earth is in radiative contact with both the Sun and dark space; it receives almost all its energy from the radiation of the Sun and reflects some of it into outer space. Dark space is very cold, about 3 K, so Earth radiates energy into it. For instance, heat transfer occurs from soil and grasses, the rate of which can be so rapid that frost can occur on clear summer evenings, even in warm latitudes.
The average...
The average...
1.1K
03:40Hess's Law
44.9K
There are two ways to determine the amount of heat involved in a chemical change: measure it experimentally, or calculate it from other experimentally determined enthalpy changes. Some reactions are difficult, if not impossible, to investigate and make accurate measurements for experimentally. And even when a reaction is not hard to perform or measure, it is convenient to be able to determine the heat involved in a reaction without having to perform an experiment.
44.9K