Cardiovascular predicted risk: A population-based comparison of the pooled cohorts equation and PREVENT

While the new cardiovascular risk score (PREVENT) has improvements, its implementation may lead to significant changes in the distribution of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (ASCVD) in the United States. We aimed to quantify and characterize the distribution of the 10-year predicted absolute ASCVD risk using the Pooled Cohorts Equation (PCE) and PREVENT.

We utilized the latest (2017-March 2020) round of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Accounting for the complex survey design of the NHANES, we computed the mean predicted ASCVD risk overall and by sex, race, and education; similarly, we computed the prevalence of cardiovascular risk groups (<5%, 5%-7.4%, 7.5%-19.9%, and ≥ 20%).

The study included 3845 observations, representing 109,692,509 people. Using the PREVENT calculator resulted in a reduction of the mean 10-year ASCVD absolute risk by half compared to the PCE: 9.1% vs 4.7%. Under the PCE, the high-risk category accounted for 12.5% of the population, whereas under PREVENT it fell to 0.4%. Among those previously classified as high-risk under the PCE, 3.5% would remain in this category with PREVENT, while 93% would be reclassified as intermediate risk.

The adoption of the novel cardiovascular risk score, PREVENT, could lower the average predicted ASCVD risk and reduce the prevalence of high-risk individuals. While this shift might suggest improved cardiovascular health, it could also lead to complacency, potentially undermining ongoing public health efforts aimed at preventing cardiovascular disease.