Climate impacts of critical mineral supply chain bottlenecks for electric vehicle deployment

New tailpipe emissions standards aim to increase electric vehicle (EV) sales in the United States. Here, we analyze the associated critical mineral supply chain constraints and enumerate the climate consequences of these constraints. Our work yields five findings. First, the proposed standard necessitates replacing at least 10.21 million new internal combustion engine vehicles with EVs between 2027 and 2032. Second, based on economically viable and geologically available mineral reserves, manufacturing sufficient EVs is plausible and reduces up to 457.3 million tons of CO₂e. Third, mineral production capacities in the United States and amongst allies support the deployment of 5.09 million vehicles between 2027 and 2032, well short of compliance target. Fourth, this shortfall produces at least 59.54 million tons of CO₂e in lost lifecycle emissions benefits. Fifth, limited production of battery-grade graphite and cobalt may represent particularly profound constraints. Pathways that afford comparable emission reductions are subsequently explored.