Assessing the Predictive Validity of Early Post-injury CAPS-5 for Later Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Diagnosis

Abstract.

Objective: The Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale for DSM-5 (CAPS-5) is a widely recognized tool with exceptional reliability and validity in evaluating and diagnosing PTSD. This study aimed to determine the predictive values of CAPS-5 assessed early postinjury for subsequent development of PTSD during a 2-year follow-up period.

Methods: Patients with moderate to severe physical injuries were recruited from a trauma center at a university hospital in South Korea between June 2015 and January 2021. At baseline, 1,142 patients underwent evaluations using CAPS-5 for the diagnosis of acute stress disorder (ASD) along with total scores. They were followed up for PTSD using the CAPS-5 evaluations at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months post-baseline. Area under receiver operating curve (AUROC) analyses were conducted to identify predictive values of the CAPS-5 for later PTSD development.

Results: CAPS-5 diagnosis of ASD at baseline displayed fair to failed performance (AUROCs: 0.555-0.722) for predicting follow-up PTSD. However, CAPS-5 scores of ≥15 exhibited good to fair predictive accuracy (AUROCs: 0.767-0.854) for later PTSD development. Notably, for patients with intentional injuries or a history of previous trauma, a higher CAPS-5 score of ≥16 showed improved predictive accuracy.

Conclusion: A CAPS-5 score of ≥15 would be an effective and practical cutoff for early prediction of PTSD following physical injuries. In cases of intentional injuries or a documented trauma history, a cutoff of ≥16 may offer enhanced predictive precision. Future research in diverse settings and populations is needed to confirm the generalizability of our findings.