COVID-19 in nursing homes: Geographic diffusion and regional risk factors from January 1 to July 26, 2020 of the pandemic

COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes accounted for 30.2% of all COVID-19 deaths in the United States during the early weeks (1-January to 26-July, 2020) of the pandemic. This study presents the geographic diffusion of COVID-19 cases and deaths in nursing homes during this time period, while also providing explanation of regional risk factors.

Nursing home COVID-19 data on confirmed cases (n = 173,452) and deaths (n = 46,173) were obtained from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Weekly COVID-19 case counts were spatially smoothed to identify nursing homes in areas of high COVID-19 infection. Bivariate spatial autocorrelation was used to visualize High vs. Low-case counts and related deaths. Zero-inflated negative binomial models were estimated within Health and Human Service (HHS) Regions at three-week intervals to evaluate facility and area-level risk factors. The first reported nursing home resident to die of COVID-19 was in the state of Washington on 28-February, 2020. By 24-May, 2020 there were simultaneous epicenters in the Northeast (HHS Regions 1 and 2) and Midwest (HHS Region 5) with diffusion into the South (HHS Regions 4 and 6) from 15-June to 5-July, 2020. The case-fatality rate was highest from 25-May to 14-June, 2020 (30.9 deaths per 1000 residents); thereafter declining to 24.1 (15-June to 5-July, 2020) and 19.4 (6-July to 26-July, 2020) (overall case-fatality rate 1-January to 26-July = 26.6). Statistically significant risk factors for COVID-19 deaths were admission of patients with COVID-19 into nursing homes, staff confirmed infections and nursing shortages. COVID-19 deaths were likely to occur in nursing homes in high minority and non-English speaking neighborhoods and neighborhoods with a high proportion of households with disabilities.

Enhanced communication between HHS regional administrators about "lessons learned" could provide receiving state health departments with timely information to inform clinical practice to prevent premature death in nursing homes in future pandemics.