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Subjective Probability Increases Across Communication Chains: Introducing the Probability Escalation Effect.

Adam J L Harris1, Shi-Hui Kau1, Alice Liefgreen1

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Cognition
|August 16, 2024
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Subjective probabilities escalate across communication chains. This "Probability Escalation Effect" increases estimates for severe, non-severe, and positive events, likely by focusing attention on event occurrence.

Keywords:
Communication chainCommunication directionalityRisk communicationSeverity effectSocial amplification of riskVerbal probability expressions

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Communication Studies

Background:

  • A "severity effect" shows numerical probability translations differ based on outcome severity.
  • This effect has been observed in both verbal-to-numerical and numerical-to-verbal probability translations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate if these severity effects cause subjective probabilities to escalate through communication chains.
  • To identify the underlying mechanisms driving probability escalation across multiple communication stages.

Main Methods:

  • Four "communication chain" studies were conducted.
  • Participants translated either verbal probability expressions to numbers or numbers to verbal expressions.
  • Probability translations were yoked across participants in sequential communication stages.

Main Results:

  • A general "Probability Escalation Effect" was observed across all studies.
  • Subjective probabilities consistently increased with each subsequent communication stage.
  • This escalation occurred for severe, non-severe, and positive events.

Conclusions:

  • The Probability Escalation Effect demonstrates a consistent increase in subjective probability estimates through communication.
  • The findings suggest that communication processes direct attention, amplifying estimates of focal outcome occurrences.
  • This highlights a potential bias in how information about event likelihood is transmitted and perceived.