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Decision making under extinction risk
Maximilian Maier1, Adam J L Harris1, David Kellen2
1Department of Experimental Psychology, University College London, United Kingdom.
Cognitive Psychology
|June 25, 2025
Summary
People often make decisions with extinction risks, like driving. A new Extinction Gambling Task (EGT) reveals common decision-making flaws such as loss chasing and scope insensitivity.
Area of Science:
- Decision Science
- Risk Analysis
- Behavioral Economics
Background:
- Everyday decisions frequently involve irredeemable risks, including existential threats.
- Research on decision-making under extinction risk is limited despite its practical importance.
- Existing decision science models may not fully capture the nuances of extinction risk scenarios.
Purpose of the Study:
- To formally understand decision-making under extinction risk.
- To introduce a novel experimental paradigm, the Extinction Gambling Task (EGT).
- To compare optimal strategies with human choices in simulated extinction scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Development of the Extinction Gambling Task (EGT).
- Derivation of optimal strategies for extinction and near-extinction events.
- Experimental comparison of human choices against derived optimal strategies.
- Computational modeling to analyze individual decision-making strategies.
Main Results:
- Participants demonstrated some effective qualitative strategies but exhibited systematic biases.
- Observed shortcomings include loss chasing, scope insensitivity, and neglect of opportunity costs.
- Computational models identified individual-level strengths and weaknesses in risk assessment.
Conclusions:
- The EGT provides a framework for studying decisions under extinction risk.
- Human decision-making under extinction risk is characterized by specific cognitive biases.
- Further research is needed to address the complexities of extinction risk decisions.
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