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Household Firearm Ownership and Firearm Mortality.
Andrew R Morral1, Denis Agniel1, Rosanna Smart1
1Gun Policy in America Initiative, RAND Corporation, Arlington, Virginia.
JAMA Network Open
|August 21, 2024
Summary
Higher household firearm ownership rates (HFRs) precede increases in firearm suicide rates. Conversely, elevated firearm homicide rates are followed by decreases in HFRs, revealing temporal links between gun ownership and mortality.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Criminology
Background:
- Causal links between household firearm ownership rates (HFRs) and firearm mortality remain unclear.
- Understanding temporal sequencing is crucial for addressing firearm violence.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine the population-level temporal relationship between firearm death rates and HFRs in the US.
- To differentiate the temporal sequencing of firearm suicides versus homicides in relation to HFRs.
Main Methods:
- Utilized autoregressive cross-lagged models analyzing US data from 1990-2018.
- Included analyses of 16 adult demographic subgroups for suicide and urban/rural subgroups for homicide.
- Data analysis spanned March to December 2023.
Main Results:
- Higher HFRs were associated with subsequent increases in firearm suicide rates.
- A 1 SD increase in HFR predicted a 0.19 deaths per 100,000 increase in firearm suicides.
- Higher firearm homicide rates were associated with subsequent decreases in HFRs.
Conclusions:
- This study demonstrates that higher household firearm ownership precedes increased firearm suicide rates.
- Conversely, higher firearm homicide rates are followed by decreased household firearm ownership.
- The findings clarify temporal associations, informing theories on firearm ownership and mortality.
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