Exploring climate shifts in the Ganga-Brahmaputra basin based on rainfall and temperature variability

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Environmental Science
• Hydrology

Background:

• The Ganga-Brahmaputra (GB) basin, India's primary food-producing region, faces significant climate change impacts, including frequent floods and droughts.
• Global climate change poses a substantial threat to food security and water resources in the densely populated GB basin.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze 30-year trends in rainfall and temperature within the GB basin.
• To identify regions vulnerable to climate change impacts, aligning with the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global temperature rise to below 2°C.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of maximum and minimum temperature anomalies and rainfall variability over 30 years.
• Utilized Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Niño 3.4 index to correlate regional climate with global climatic oscillations.

Main Results:

• Observed significant temperature increases, particularly in the middle Ganga plains and Brahmaputra basin (up to 1.5°C year⁻¹).
• Identified increasing rainfall variability in the lower Ganga region and a decreasing trend in the Brahmaputra basin.
• Found a negative correlation between Niño 3.4 (El Niño) and SPI3 during the monsoon, indicating increased drought risk in the GB basin.

Conclusions:

• The GB basin is experiencing significant climatic shifts, with increased risk of floods in the Ganga and droughts in the Brahmaputra.
• Findings highlight the vulnerability of this critical agricultural region to climate change and the need for adaptive strategies.