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Climate-driven context-dependent structure of population cycles.

Noelle I Samia1, Osnat Stramer2, Takashi Saitoh3

  • 1Department of Statistics and Data Science, Northwestern University, 2006 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208, USA.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Small mammal population cycles are influenced by temperature and rodent community structure. Multiannual population dynamics of grey-sided voles in Japan reveal temperature-driven cycles linked to rodent community complexity.

Keywords:
climateecological interactionsglobal climate changepanels of autoregressive time seriespredator–prey cyclespatio-temporal mixed-effects statistical analysis

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Area of Science:

  • Population biology
  • Ecological dynamics
  • Time series analysis

Background:

  • Multiannual population cycles in small mammals are a key area of study in population biology.
  • Understanding the drivers of these cycles is crucial for predicting population dynamics.
  • Grey-sided voles (Myodes rufocanus) in Japan exhibit complex population fluctuations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate multiannual population cycles in grey-sided voles using autoregressive (AR) time series analysis.
  • To determine the influence of temperature and rodent community structure on vole population dynamics.
  • To explore the relationship between AR structure, environmental factors, and population cycles.

Main Methods:

  • Application of multidimensional autoregressive (AR) time series modeling.
  • Analysis of monitoring data for grey-sided voles in Japan.
  • Correlation analysis between population dynamics, temperature, and rodent community composition.

Main Results:

  • Temperature significantly shapes vole population dynamics by influencing rodent community structure.
  • Vole populations in simple rodent communities show a 2-3 year AR(2) cycle.
  • In complex communities, vole dynamics follow an AR(4) process with combined cycles, influenced by warmer winters leading to declines.

Conclusions:

  • The AR structure of vole populations varies spatially and is linked to temperature and rodent community complexity.
  • Warmer winters are associated with declining vole abundance in AR(4) populations.
  • Findings provide insights into declining rodent population trends in the Northern Hemisphere, highlighting the interplay of climate and community structure.