A Dynamically Consistent ENsemble of Temperature at the Earth surface since 1850 from the DCENT dataset

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Earth System Science
• Paleoclimatology

Background:

• Accurate historical surface temperature records are crucial for climate research and policy.
• Existing instrumental temperature estimates show inconsistencies at global and regional scales.
• Addressing these inconsistencies is vital for reliable climate change assessments.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a new, dynamically consistent ensemble of historical surface temperature anomalies.
• To improve the accuracy and consistency of global and regional temperature reconstructions.
• To provide a more robust baseline for assessing historical climate warming.

Main Methods:

• Developed the Dynamically Consistent ENsemble of Temperature (DCENT), a 200-member, 5°×5° resolution dataset from 1850.
• Employed an optimized pairwise homogenization algorithm for land surface air temperature data.
• Utilized a physics-informed inter-comparison method for sea-surface temperature bias adjustment.
• Integrated a coupled energy balance model for homogenizing continental and marine records.

Main Results:

• DCENT offers monthly surface temperature anomalies relative to the 1982-2014 climatology.
• The ensemble leverages updated data homogenization and bias adjustment techniques.
• A key finding is a cooler baseline for 1850-1900 compared to existing estimates.

Conclusions:

• The DCENT dataset provides a more consistent and accurate reconstruction of historical surface temperatures.
• The cooler baseline implies a greater magnitude of historical warming.
• This improved dataset will enhance climate research and inform policy development.