[Risk Factors and a Prediction Model for Frequent Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease].

Area of Science:

• Pulmonology
• Clinical Medicine
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a major health concern with frequent acute exacerbations (AECOPD) leading to significant morbidity and healthcare costs.
• Identifying risk factors for AECOPD is crucial for developing targeted prevention and management strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify clinical risk factors associated with frequent AECOPD hospitalizations.
• To develop and validate a predictive model for frequent AECOPD using clinical data.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of 11,315 COPD patients' clinical data from a tertiary hospital.
• Multivariate logistic regression to identify independent risk factors for frequent AECOPD.
• Construction and performance evaluation of a nomogram prediction model using ROC curve analysis.

Main Results:

• Frequent AECOPD was associated with higher rates of male sex, older age, urban residence, smoking, longer hospital stays, and increased costs.
• Independent risk factors identified include age, urban residence, smoking, diabetes, heart disease, Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection, systemic glucocorticoid use, respiratory failure, elevated white blood cell count, total cholesterol, and BNP.
• The developed nomogram model demonstrated good predictive performance with an AUC of 0.899.

Conclusions:

• Frequent AECOPD is significantly associated with a combination of demographic, clinical, and microbiological factors.
• The established prediction model effectively identifies patients at high risk for frequent AECOPD hospitalizations.
• This model can support clinical decision-making for risk stratification, prevention, and personalized treatment of AECOPD.