A local-to-global emissions inventory of macroplastic pollution

Negotiations for a global treaty on plastic pollution¹ will shape future policies on plastics production, use and waste management. Its parties will benefit from a high-resolution baseline of waste flows and plastic emission sources to enable identification of pollution hotspots and their causes². Nationally aggregated waste management data can be distributed to smaller scales to identify generalized points of plastic accumulation and source phenomena^3-11. However, it is challenging to use this type of spatial allocation to assess the conditions under which emissions take place^12,13. Here we develop a global macroplastic pollution emissions inventory by combining conceptual modelling of emission mechanisms with measurable activity data. We define emissions as materials that have moved from the managed or mismanaged system (controlled or contained state) to the unmanaged system (uncontrolled or uncontained state-the environment). Using machine learning and probabilistic material flow analysis, we identify emission hotspots across 50,702 municipalities worldwide from five land-based plastic waste emission sources. We estimate global plastic waste emissions at 52.1 [48.3-56.3] million metric tonnes (Mt) per year, with approximately 57% wt. and 43% wt. open burned and unburned debris, respectively. Littering is the largest emission source in the Global North, whereas uncollected waste is the dominant emissions source across the Global South. We suggest that our findings can help inform treaty negotiations and develop national and sub-national waste management action plans and source inventories.