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Conceptualising systems thinking and complexity modelling for circular economy quantification: A systematic review
Soumava Boral1, Leon Black1, Costas A Velis1,2
1School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
Summary
Quantifying the circular economy (CE) is complex. This review of 60 studies found system dynamics (SD) and agent-based modelling (ABMS) are often isolated, limiting comprehensive CE system analysis and decision support.
Area of Science:
- Systems Science
- Environmental Science
- Economics
Background:
- Quantifying the circular economy (CE) is crucial but challenging due to its complexity and dynamic nature.
- Systems thinking approaches like system dynamics (SD) and agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) are used to model complex systems.
- Existing research often applies these methods in isolation, hindering comprehensive analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review and analyze studies applying SD or ABMS to CE quantification.
- To identify limitations in current modeling approaches for CE.
- To highlight the need for integrated systems approaches for better CE decision support.
Main Methods:
- Conducted a Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR).
- Systematically reviewed 60 studies utilizing SD or ABMS for CE quantification.
- Examined applications across various sectors including bio-based materials, construction, and industrial symbiosis.
Main Results:
- Both SD and ABMS capture feedback loops and temporal dynamics of circularity but are often used separately.
- Limited integration of SD and ABMS, or with static tools like LCA and MCDA, restricts multi-scale modeling and decision support.
- A lack of standardized metrics and holistic evaluation tools, particularly for social sustainability, is evident.
Conclusions:
- Isolated use of SD and ABMS limits comprehensive CE modeling and system-wide decision support.
- There is a need for integrated systems approaches combining dynamic and static modeling tools.
- Developing unified evaluation tools is essential for evidence-based policymaking and wider industrial adoption of CE principles.
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