Methodology and data for quantifying storm erosion potential considering sea level rise.

Area of Science:

• Coastal geology and geomorphology
• Climate change science
• Oceanography and marine science

Background:

• Coastal regions face increasing threats from storm events, exacerbated by rising sea levels.
• Understanding historical storm impacts under future sea level rise (SLR) is crucial for coastal adaptation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify historical storm intensity along the New Jersey coast under present and future sea level conditions.
• To provide a dataset for comparing storm impacts across different sea level rise scenarios, including IPCC AR6 projections.
• To assess the erosion potential of storms considering total water level, wave heights, and duration.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of approximately 130 historical storms (1980-2014) along the New Jersey coastline.
• Quantification of storm intensity using erosion potential under three sea level conditions: historical, 1997 mean, and 2050/2100 IPCC AR6 scenarios.
• Inclusion of local vertical land movement in projected sea level scenarios.

Main Results:

• Dataset quantifies cumulative and peak storm intensity for historical and projected sea level rise conditions.
• Hourly time series of wave characteristics and water levels are available for 13 New Jersey coastal locations.
• The data enables direct comparison of historical storm impacts under future sea level rise.

Conclusions:

• Future sea level rise scenarios significantly alter the intensity and potential erosion of historical storms.
• The dataset offers a valuable resource for coastal management and hydrodynamic modeling under changing climate conditions.
• This research provides critical insights into the vulnerability of the New Jersey coast to climate change impacts.