Are factors that predict conversion to psychosis associated with initial transition to a high risk state? An...

Previous work suggests that cognitive and environmental risk factors may predict conversion to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk (CHRs) for the disorder. Less clear, however, is whether these same factors are also associated with the initial emergence of the high risk state in individuals who do not meet current threshold criteria for being considered high risk.

Here, using data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study, we examined associations between factors previously demonstrated to predict conversion to psychosis in CHRs with transition to a "high risk" state, here defined as having a distress score between 2 and 5 on any unusual thought content question in the Prodromal Questionnaire-Brief Child version. Of a sample of 5237 children (ages 11-12) studied at baseline, 470 transitioned to the high-risk state the following year. A logistic regression model was evaluated using age, cognition, negative and traumatic experiences, decline in school performance, and family history of psychosis as predictors.

The overall model was significant (χ² = 100.89, R² = 0.042, p < .001). Significant predictors included number of negative life events, decline in school performance, number of trauma types, and verbal learning task performance.

These results suggest that factors that predict conversion in CHR teenagers are also associated with initial emergence of a "high-risk" state in preadolescents. Limitations regarding the degree to which model factors and outcome in this study parallel those used in previous work involving psychosis risk in older teenagers are discussed.