Survival analysis and prognostic nomogram for patients with cholangiocarcinoma after radical resection in Asia

CCA has a poor prognosis. Different anatomical subtypes are characterized by distinct clinical features, surgical options, and prognoses, which can potentially impact survival outcomes following radical resection. In addition to the malignancy of CCA itself, clinical staging and treatment methods are the main factors that can affect survival. This study aims to update a more reliable prediction model for the prognosis of CCA based on different anatomical locations.

A total of 1172 CCA patients (305 iCCA, 467 pCCA, and 400 dCCA) who underwent surgical resection between 2015 and 2022 were included in the analysis. The covariates included in the analysis were age, sex, tumor diameter, differentiation grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, neural invasion, cancer thrombus, history of hepatitis B or biliary calculi, and receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy. The data were randomly divided into training (80 %) and validation cohort (20 %).

We developed a nomogram of the sensitive model and calculated concordance indices of different constructed prognostic survival models. Meanwhile, we validated the effectiveness of the nomogram model and compared it with the TNM system through decision curve analysis (DCA) and internal cohort validation. The nomogram model had a better net benefit than the TNM system at any given threshold for iCCA, pCCA, and dCCA, regardless of their location.

We have updated the prognostic model for OS in CCA patients who underwent radical resection according to the different tumor locations. This model can effectively predict OS and has the potential to facilitate individual clinical decision-making.