Expert judgement reveals current and emerging UK climate-mortality burden

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Climate Science
• Public Health

Background:

• Weather and climate significantly impact public health, but specific hazard-mortality links are not fully synthesized.
• Existing country-level health burden assessments face uncertainty due to lack of comprehensive data.
• Expert knowledge can reduce uncertainty and quantify mortality causes beyond explicit data.

Purpose of the Study:

• To provide the first structured expert judgment on direct weather and climate impacts on mortality.
• To assess current and future weather-related mortality causes in the UK.
• To establish a framework for expert-based climate-related health burden assessment in other nations.

Main Methods:

• Surveyed 30 experts in weather, climate, and health.
• Developed a structured expert judgment framework.
• Focused on direct impacts of weather and climate on mortality in the UK.

Main Results:

• Current weather-related mortality is primarily driven by short-term heat and cold exposure, causing cardiovascular and respiratory failure.
• Underappreciated mortality outcomes include heat-related renal disease, cold-related musculoskeletal issues, and infectious diseases from compound hazards.
• Future projections indicate worsening mortality, including mental health impacts from heat and flooding, and altered infectious disease patterns.

Conclusions:

• Expert judgment is crucial for understanding the full spectrum of weather and climate-related mortality.
• Long-term exposure and compound hazards represent significant, often overlooked, climate-sensitive health risks.
• This expert-based approach can inform climate change adaptation strategies and health burden assessments globally.