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Assessing global factors associated with tropical cyclone-related mortality: A population-based longitudinal study
Wenzhong Huang1, Zhengyu Yang2, Christian Otto3
1Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine and Engineering of Ministry of Education, and School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
Environment International
|July 11, 2026
Summary
Sociodemographic factors, not storm intensity, are key drivers of global tropical cyclone mortality. Rainfall, interacting with local conditions, significantly impacts mortality disparities.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Public Health
- Climate Science
Background:
- Tropical cyclone (TC)-related mortality exhibits significant global spatiotemporal variability.
- Underlying factors driving this mortality burden remain unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify and assess key factors associated with TC-related mortality globally.
- To understand the relative importance of TC characteristics and local factors on mortality.
Main Methods:
- Collected mortality records from 2034 locations across 68 countries (2000-2019).
- Applied Bayesian ensemble models to estimate TC-related mortality.
- Utilized random forest regression (RFR) to assess factor importance and interactions.
Main Results:
- Cumulative rainfall was more influential than flood depth or windspeed.
- Sociodemographic factors (population density, age structure, development) were more important than TC physical attributes.
- Cumulative rainfall interacted strongly with local sociodemographic conditions.
Conclusions:
- Sociodemographic factors critically explain global TC-related mortality variability, exceeding TC intensity.
- TC-related rainfall, interacting with local conditions, is a key factor in the global mortality burden.
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