Strategic investment and program effectiveness: a roadmap to ending AIDS in Bangladesh by 2030

The journey towards ending AIDS epidemic in Bangladesh by 2030 is ambitious yet achievable. Although Bangladesh has always had a low rate of HIV among its general population, it remains one of seven countries in Asia and the Pacific where new HIV cases are rising. This study evaluates the effectiveness of HIV programmatic strategies and investment scenarios using the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) from 2023 to 2030, focusing on optimizing resource allocation and interventions. The findings indicate that without improved program effectiveness, new HIV infections will increase to 1,382 by 2030, failing to meet the targets of the Global AIDS Strategy 2021-2026. If Bangladesh improves its HIV program effectiveness according to the Global AIDS Strategy 2021-2026, the NSP and Global AIDS Strategy targets could significantly lower new infections and AIDS-related deaths and increase treatment coverage to meet Ending AIDS targets. The NSP targets could reduce new HIV infections to under 275 annually and achieve treatment goals by 2030. The study reveals that NSP targets are the most cost-effective, offering the highest benefit-cost ratio, highlighting the urgent need to enhance HIV prevention program effectiveness, particularly among key populations, to achieve both public health and economic benefits.