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A Nomogram for Predicting Postoperative Pulmonary Complications in Critical Patients Transferred to ICU After
Bin Wang1,2, Han Sheng Liang1, Jia Wei Shen2
1Department of Anaesthesiology, Peking University People's Hospital, 100044, Beijing, China.
Insights
This study identified key risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) in critically ill patients after abdominal surgery. A predictive model was developed to aid in identifying high-risk individuals for PPCs.
Area of Science:
- Critical Care Medicine
- Surgical Outcomes
- Respiratory Medicine
Background:
- Postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) are a significant concern in critically ill patients following abdominal surgery.
- Identifying risk factors and developing predictive models are crucial for improving patient outcomes and reducing morbidity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate risk factors for PPCs in critically ill patients after abdominal surgery.
- To develop and validate a predictive model (nomogram) for PPCs in this patient population.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 3716 patients admitted to the ICU after abdominal surgery (Jan 2015 - Dec 2020).
- Prospective data collection for validation using patients admitted from March 2021 to December 2022.
- Development of a nomogram prediction model based on identified independent risk factors.
Main Results:
- Ten independent risk factors for PPCs were identified in critically ill surgical patients.
- The nomogram demonstrated good predictive value with an Area Under the ROC Curve of 0.771 in the training set and 0.759 in the validation set.
- The model effectively predicts PPCs in patients transferred to the ICU after abdominal surgery.
Conclusions:
- Independent risk factors for PPCs in critically ill patients undergoing abdominal surgery have been identified.
- A nomogram model incorporating these factors shows significant predictive capability for PPCs.
- This predictive tool can aid in the early identification and management of high-risk surgical patients to prevent pulmonary complications.
Abstract:
ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to investigate the risk factors associated with postoperative pulmonary complications(PPCs) in critically ill patients transferred to intensive care unit(ICU) after abdominal surgery and develop a predictive model for this disease.MethodsData for 3716 patients who were admitted to ICU after abdominal surgery in Peking University People's Hospital between January 2015 and December 2020 were retrospectively collected and analyzed to identify the risk factors and develop a nomogram prediction model. Data for patients admitted to ICU following abdominal surgery at Peking University People's Hospital from March 2021 to December 2022 were prospectively collected as a validation set to validate and assess the model.Results10 independent risk factors for PPCs in critically ill patients transferred to ICU after abdominal surgery were identified. A nomogram prediction model was constructed for PPCs in this group patients, the area under ROC curve was 0.771[95%CI: 0.756,0.786] and 0.759[95%CI: 0.726,0.792] in the training set and validation set, respectively.ConclusionsIn this study, independent risk factors for PPCs in critically ill patients transferred to ICU after abdominal surgery were identified. A nomogram prediction model for PPCs in critically ill surgical population was constructed using these factors, demonstrating a good predictive value.
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