Species interactions drive continuous assembly of freshwater communities in stochastic environments

Understanding the factors driving the maintenance of long-term biodiversity in changing environments is essential for improving restoration and sustainability strategies in the face of global environmental change. Biodiversity is shaped by both niche and stochastic processes, however the strength of deterministic processes in unpredictable environmental regimes is highly debated. Since communities continuously change over time and space-species persist, disappear or (re)appear-understanding the drivers of species gains and losses from communities should inform us about whether niche or stochastic processes dominate community dynamics. Applying a nonparametric causal discovery approach to a 30-year time series containing annual abundances of benthic invertebrates across 66 locations in New Zealand rivers, we found a strong negative causal relationship between species gains and losses directly driven by predation indicating that niche processes dominate community dynamics. Despite the unpredictable nature of these system, environmental noise was only indirectly related to species gains and losses through altering life history trait distribution. Using a stochastic birth-death framework, we demonstrate that the negative relationship between species gains and losses can not emerge without strong niche processes. Our results showed that even in systems that are dominated by unpredictable environmental variability, species interactions drive continuous community assembly.