Risk factors for regional lymph node metastasis in rectal neuroendocrine tumors: a population-based study

The identification of risk factors for regional lymph node (r-LN) metastasis in rectal neuroendocrine tumors (R-NETs) remains challenging. Our objective was to investigate the risk factors associated with patients diagnosed with R-NETs exhibiting r-LN metastasis.

Patient information was obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, complemented by data from the West China Hospital (WCH) databases. The construction cohort comprised patients diagnosed with R-NETs from the SEER database, while cases from the WCH database were utilized as the validation cohort. A novel nomogram was developed to predict the probability of r-LN metastasis, employing a logistic regression model.

Univariate analysis identified four independent risk factors associated with poor r-LN metastasis: age (HR = 1.027, p < 0.05), grade (HR = 0.010, p < 0.05), T stage (HR = 0.010, p < 0.05), and tumor size (HR = 0.005, p < 0.05). These factors were selected as predictors for nomogram construction.

The novel nomogram serves as a reliable tool for predicting the risk of r-LN metastasis, providing clinicians with valuable assistance in identifying high-risk patients and tailoring individualized treatments.