Predicting intracranial bleeding during anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism within different time frames:...

The risk of intracranial bleeding during anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) is substantial and persists beyond the initial treatment phase. We aimed to refine risk-assessment through phase-specific prognostic scores.

We identified data from 77,786 VTE patients in the RIETE registry from March 2009 to October 2023 to develop two prognostic scores for intracranial bleeding. Multivariable Cox regression was used to analyze distinct variables for the early (≤90 days) and late (>90 days) phases, with comparative validation against existing scores (modified ACCP, RIETE, VTE-BLEED, and CHAP).

Intracranial bleeding occurred in 411 patients (0.53 %), with 208 cases in the early phase and 203 in the late phase. The 30-day mortality was 45 % and 35 %, respectively. Shared significant predictors for both phases include baseline abnormal mental status, brain cancer, recent intracranial bleeding, and epilepsy. Unique to early-phase bleeding were body weight, non-brain cancer, hypertension, dementia, thrombocytopenia, renal insufficiency, and thrombolytic therapy. Advanced age, pulmonary embolism initially, prior stroke, depression, treatment with direct oral anticoagulants, and use of corticosteroids predicted late-phase bleeding. Both prognostic scores showed a c-statistic of 0.68, outperforming existing scores.

The study introduces two temporal prognostic scores for intracranial bleeding during anticoagulation for VTE. By discerning specific risk factors pertinent to each treatment phase, these scores outperform traditional models, offering an advanced tool for clinical decision-making. They hold significant potential for optimizing anticoagulation management and reducing bleeding-related mortality.