Beyond the usual suspects: multi-factorial computational models in the search for neurodegenerative disease...

From Alzheimer's disease to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, the molecular cascades underlying neurodegenerative disorders remain poorly understood. The clinical view of neurodegeneration is confounded by symptomatic heterogeneity and mixed pathology in almost every patient. While the underlying physiological alterations originate, proliferate, and propagate potentially decades before symptomatic onset, the complexity and inaccessibility of the living brain limit direct observation over a patient's lifespan. Consequently, there is a critical need for robust computational methods to support the search for causal mechanisms of neurodegeneration by distinguishing pathogenic processes from consequential alterations, and inter-individual variability from intra-individual progression. Recently, promising advances have been made by data-driven spatiotemporal modeling of the brain, based on in vivo neuroimaging and biospecimen markers. These methods include disease progression models comparing the temporal evolution of various biomarkers, causal models linking interacting biological processes, network propagation models reproducing the spatial spreading of pathology, and biophysical models spanning cellular- to network-scale phenomena. In this review, we discuss various computational approaches for integrating cross-sectional, longitudinal, and multi-modal data, primarily from large observational neuroimaging studies, to understand (i) the temporal ordering of physiological alterations, i(i) their spatial relationships to the brain's molecular and cellular architecture, (iii) mechanistic interactions between biological processes, and (iv) the macroscopic effects of microscopic factors. We consider the extents to which computational models can evaluate mechanistic hypotheses, explore applications such as improving treatment selection, and discuss how model-informed insights can lay the groundwork for a pathobiological redefinition of neurodegenerative disorders.