Integrating multisource data and machine learning for supraglacial lake detection: Implications for environmental...

The accurate detection and monitoring of supraglacial lakes in high mountainous regions are crucial for understanding their dynamic nature and implications for environmental management and sustainable development goals. In this study, we propose a novel approach that integrates multisource data and machine learning techniques for supra-glacial lake detection in the Passu Batura glacier of the Hunza Basin, Pakistan. We extract pertinent features or parameters by leveraging multisource datasets such as radar backscatter intensity VH and VV parameters from Sentinel-1 Ground Range Detected (GRD) data, near-infrared (NIR), NDWI_green, NDWI_blue parameters from Sentinel-2 Multi-spectral Instrument (MSI) data, and surface slope, aspect, and elevation parameters from topographic data. The entire dataset is partitioned into training and testing sets, with machine learning models including the artificial neural network (ANN), the support vector machine (SVM), logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and K-nearest neighbour (KNN) trained on the training data (70%). Accuracy assessment employs testing data and involves the evaluation of metrics such as ROC curves and confusion matrices. The best-performing model, ANN, is validated against manually digitized lake polygons derived from Sentinel-2 and Google Earth Pro imagery. Furthermore, the digitized lake polygons are used to analyze glacial lake dynamics from 2016 to 2022. Key findings of this research presented that the NDWI_green, Sigma0_VH, and elevation are the most significant predictors in detecting supra-glacial lakes. Among the various trained and evaluated models, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) achieved the highest performance (accuracy: 95%, AUC: 0.99) and accurately mapped supra-glacial lakes regardless of their small size. The findings have significant implications for understanding glacial lake behavior in the context of climate change and informing future research and monitoring efforts.