Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 11, 2025
06:55
A High-throughput Platform for the Screening of Salmonella spp./Shigella spp.
Published on: November 7, 2018
8.9K
Global Incidence of Diarrheal Diseases-An Update Using an Interpretable Predictive Model Based on XGBoost and SHAP: A
Dan Liang1, Li Wang2, Shuang Liu1
1Department of Immunology and Microbiology, College of Life Science and Technology, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
Nutrients
|September 28, 2024
Summary
Diarrheal disease incidence is rising globally, especially in older adults, despite decreasing age-standardized rates. Improving water and sanitation access is key to reducing future cases.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Environmental Health
Background:
- Diarrheal disease is a persistent global public health challenge, disproportionately affecting young children and the elderly.
- Understanding diarrhea incidence trends and influencing factors is vital for effective public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze temporal trends in diarrhea incidence from 1990-2019 and project future incidence (2020-2040) globally, regionally, and nationally.
- To identify key factors driving diarrhea incidence to inform prevention and control strategies.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model for incidence prediction (2020-2040) incorporating demographic, meteorological, and water/sanitation indicators.
- Employed SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to interpret model predictions and identify influential variables.
- Calculated Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) to assess temporal trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs).
Main Results:
- Globally, diarrhea cases and ASIRs increased from 2010-2019. Incident cases are projected to rise by 2040, while ASIRs are expected to slightly decrease.
- Adults aged 60+ show an increasing incidence rate trend, while children under 5 have the highest number of incident cases.
- Risk factors for increased incidence include age over 60, high precipitation (>3000 mm), high temperatures (>20°C), and high vapor pressure deficit (>1500 Pa).
Conclusions:
- Diarrheal diseases remain a significant concern, with projected increases in cases despite declining global ASIRs.
- While children under 5 are most affected, the rising incidence in adults aged 60+ requires focused attention.
- Enhancing access to safe drinking water and sanitation services is critical for global diarrhea incidence reduction.
Related Concept Videos
01:18Steps in Outbreak Investigation
108
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
108
01:25Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
313
Epidemiological data primarily involves information on specific populations' occurrence, distribution, and determinants of health and diseases. This data is crucial for understanding disease patterns and impacts, aiding public health decision-making and disease prevention strategies. The analysis of epidemiological data employs various statistical methods to interpret health-related data effectively. Here are some commonly used methods:
313
01:03Prediction Intervals
2.2K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
2.2K
01:18Drugs Affecting GI Tract Motility: Antimicrobials as Antidiarrheal Agents
109
Acute diarrhea, a common gastrointestinal disturbance, is characterized by the rapid evacuation of fluid stools, leading to an excessive weight in fluid. This condition typically arises from disorders affecting intestinal water and electrolyte transport. It can be triggered by an increased osmotic load within the intestine, excessive secretion of electrolytes and water, mucosal exudation of protein and fluid, or altered intestinal motility. The primary risks of acute diarrhea are dehydration...
109
01:08Prevalence and Incidence
384
In statistical epidemiology and health sciences, two essential metrics—prevalence and incidence—are fundamental for understanding disease dynamics within a population. These measures enable public health officials, epidemiologists, and researchers to assess the burden of diseases, allocate resources effectively, and design impactful public health policies and interventions.
Prevalence indicates the proportion of individuals in a population who have a specific disease or health...
Prevalence indicates the proportion of individuals in a population who have a specific disease or health...
384
01:06Model Approaches for Pharmacokinetic Data: Distributed Parameter Models
63
Pharmacokinetic models are mathematical constructs that represent and predict the time course of drug concentrations in the body, providing meaningful pharmacokinetic parameters. These models are categorized into compartment, physiological, and distributed parameter models.
The distributed parameter models are specifically designed to account for variations and differences in some drug classes. This model is particularly useful for assessing regional concentrations of anticancer or...
The distributed parameter models are specifically designed to account for variations and differences in some drug classes. This model is particularly useful for assessing regional concentrations of anticancer or...
63